THIS IS HISTORY! Check for news.

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Predictive framework

The goal of each prediction is to provide a useful thinking framework, a usable model.

Few rules

  1. The more general and accurate a prediction is, the more fundamental it is.
  2. You judge a prediction recursively
  3. You don't judge the person who does the prediction but the prediction itself
    1. If you want to judge the person to evaluate the predictions, evaluate his previous predictions

Current predictions

NameCreativity floodRobotic everywhereNearby platform
DescriptionAutomation (robotics + software) + Democratization of innovation means (DIY) -> increasing needs of quality externalization and creativityprogress in robotic (a la Olivia Social Robot) + automobile industry and its costly production chaines requiring to re-invent itself (suggested during Pleniere Communaute Ingenierie Connaissances) + aging populationLocal wifi "box" is after the server, the remote desktop, the desktop and the mobile phone the new platform to conquer. The first usage will be focusing on proximity services around the home or work to collaborate with a limited known set of peers and restricted to privacy conscious groups reluctant to the "cloud" rhetoric.
Updates??sporadically using cafe hotspots with their dedicated applications, constantly using FreeWifi or Neuf Wifi hotspots, discovered LaDistribution in April 2011 (cf FB_Wiki:Events/RailsCampParis3)
Probability of happening???
Source Trends???

Past predictions

Prediction template

Nameaffordance to the prediction
Descriptionwhat will be the new situation, where and when (ideally written in an algorithmic form too)
Impactwhat will it change
Updateslist of news on key component of the prediction (date, journal, data, confirmation/falsification, ...)
Probability of happeningbased on description and updates, what is the probability that the prediction is correct (denoted PoH)
Historychronological list of previously added PoH
Falsificationwhat data prove that the prediction is not realistic (PoH approaching 0)
Confirmationwhat data tend to show that the prediction is correct so far (PoH approaching 1)
Source Trendson what pre-existing models does this prediction relies on, the coherence with those models has to be absolute

Prediction markets

To do

  1. subscribe to RSS feed Im interested in on some predictions markets
  2. add LaTeX equations
  3. add failed predictions
    1. hard to remember, survival bias?
  4. my first
    1. mp3 player
      1. IUT Lannion (~2001)
    2. Internet connection
      1. 56K Auberge de Jeunesse de Dinan (~199?)


See also

Page last modified on June 19, 2011, at 11:03 AM